ELECTION: Dead Heat in Delta Central Senatorial Race

face to face

There is no gainsaying the fact that Delta Central senatorial zone has, in the last couple of weeks, become the focus for political observers not only in Delta State, but in Nigeria.  The attention has been generated by the ongoing campaign by the candidates of different political parties desirous of winning the Delta Central senatorial seat, for which the by-election is scheduled to hold tomorrow.

The by-election became necessary following the death of Senator Pius Akpor Ewherido, who won the seat in 2011 as the only member of the Democratic People's Party (DPP) in the red chamber of the National Assembly. He died on June 30.

However, some hours to the electoral battle, the Delta Central political arena has witnessed such unprecedented flurry of activities and horse-trading, which are disorganising earlier predictions and permutations by analysts on the outcome of the contest.

The earlier consensus that the race would be a contest involving Ede Dafinone of the DPP, Emmanuel Aguariavwodo of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and O'tega Emerhor of the All Progressives Congress (APC) seems to be changing.

Indeed, at the end of the formal launch of the campaigns by the three candidates regarded as the main contestants in the race as at yesterday, the race appears now to have further narrowed down to a two-horse affair.

General forecasts have suddenly tilted victory in favour of either Aguariavwodo or Emerhor, though some seem to be cautious about the relatively new line of thought, citing the larger-than-life image of the leader of the DPP in the state, Chief Great Ovadje Ogboru, alias "The People's General." 

The defection of Ogboru's running mate in the 2011 governorship election, Chief Fidelis Tilije, to APC is believed to have shored up the rating of the APC and its candidate. Tilije is regarded as one of the longstanding political associates of Ogboru.

Tilije formally decamped, last Monday at Effurun, into the APC, thus buoying the support threshold of Emerhor's  chances. Although Tilije is from Obiaruku, neighbouring town to Abraka, which is outside the Delta senatorial district, some believe this might not affect his possible effect on the campaign.  Tilije and Emerhor were both bankers.

Also, a one-time staunch member, Chief Frank Kokori, who had joined the late Ewherido in the APC merger process, also spoke glowingly about Emerhor and actually described the DPP as a "political orphan."

The launch of the APC candidate’s campaign turned out to be a gathering of political heavyweights as it was witnessed by such dignitaries as the governors of Edo and Imo States, Adams Oshiomhole and Rochas Okorocha, respectively; the party's Vice Chairman, South-south, Chief Tom Ikimi; a former senator representing Delta Central, Prof Adego Eferakeya; and the interim National Publicity Secretary of the APC, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, among others.
 

It is generally believed that the greatest strength of the APC candidate is the fact that Emerhor is believed to have "inherited" the strong political structure of the late Ewherido.

Moreover, he is believed to remain one of the most consistent supporters of the Urhobo cause and has shown commitment to issues like youth empowerment and community development projects organised by the Urhobo Progress Union (UPU). He is believed to have used his entrepreneurial acumen to empower many Urhobos through job offers and appointments.

His swift reconciliation with aggrieved aspirants in the aftermath of the party's primaries is seen as one of the strong factors that has enhanced the renowned banker's senatorial campaign.
Political observers point out that as one of the front runners, Emerhor could not be intimidated or written off in this exclusive race of  eminent Urhobo sons.

Ahead of the by-election, there appears to be an understanding that it is the turn of the Ughelli federal constituency to produce somebody to occupy the seat which death forced Ewherido to vacate.

Emerhor and Aguariavwodo hail from Ughelli North and Ughelli South, respectively. There seems to be a strong sentiment that a candidate from the area where Ewherido hailed from should succeed him in the Senate.

On the other hand, Dafinone of the DPP is from Sapele in the Okpe axis of the senatorial zone. His support flame which shone bright a few days ago, appears to be burning low now, given the body language of the people and leaders in the district.
 

As for Aguariavwodo, his chances remain bright given the support he enjoys as the candidate of the ruling party in the state and at the federal level and the fact also that he is the only candidate from Ughelli South Local Government Area, where the late Ewherido hailed from.
The soaring support for both Emerhor and Aguariavwodo however does not knock out Dafinone from the race.

Investigations by THISDAY showed that in the eight local government areas that comprise the senatorial district, each of the three candidates has his support base and the extent of the support will determine who wins the election.

Support for Aguariavwodo is strong in Ughelli South and Ethiope West Local Government Areas.

On his part, Emerhor dominates Ughelli North and Udu Local Government Areas.
Dafinone enjoys support of people in Ethiope East and Okpe Local Government Areas.
 

However, the situation in Sapele and Uvwie Local Government Areas is too close to call and victory there could swing the way of any of the candidates.

In Sapele Local Government Area, the race is between the DPP and PDP candidates, while in Uvwie Local Government Area, it is a contest between the DPP and the APC candidates.
 

But who wins tomorrow will depend on the turnout of voters in the local government areas.

HOW THEY STAND TODAY
Leaning towards APC
  Ughelli North LGA
  Udu LGA
Leaning towards DPP
Ethiope East LGA
Okpe LGA
Leaning towards PDP
  Ughelli South LGA
  Ethiope West LGA

Too Close to Call
  Sapele LGA
  Uvwie LGA

*These are THISDAY's projections